NCAA 9/25 & 9/27 (33-18 ATS 64.7%)

[NASDAQ]

YTD
Sides 17-11 60.7%
Totals 16-7 69.6%
Overall 33-18 64.7%


My sides strategy is pretty fixed, so I went ahead and made my plays early.

Boston College -20

Penn State +3.5

Michigan State +7.5

Texas Tech +2

Mississippi State +14

Notre Dame +10.5

North Carolina +20

Temple +14.5

BYU -1.5

Washington State +4.5

Washington -13.5

Iowa State +7

UCLA -11

Again, if you want some details on my picks, just let me know and I will be glad to give you my take. Look for totals on Friday.

 

[NASDAQ]

Monday Night Football game (first NFL game for me) posted in the NFL Forum.

 

[RexFoster]

What's your take on line movement. Does steam play for aside enter into your thoughts?

Curious.

GOOD LUCK!
Keep up the good record.
REX

 

[NASDAQ]

Rex-

Line movment plays a part in my picks, but to be honest with you, I am typically playing on TEAMS, not the lines. I look at a matchup and I like the team, regardless of what the line is. The line helps me determine where I think the public will go, why the line is what it is and what Vegas is implying with that line. A combination of all of this plays a part in narrowing my plays down to the ones I think are strongest each week.

 

[NASDAQ]

Adding...

Duke +31

Kansas +11

Texas A&M +1
Hate to do it, but the pick has value. Will probably pay for this one.

Boise State -23.5

SMU +19

Hawaii -21

Arkansas State +17

Troy State +14


What can I say, I like action and I like this week's card. As the season progresses, I just get more and more info and like more and more games.

 

[mt]

NAS

What's your take on the LSU/MSU matchup? I was on LSU, but would like to get your views. Thanks - keep up the good work.

 

[NASDAQ]

MT-

A few things to note that I look at going into capping this game.

-LSU is 4-0 SU 3-0 ATS
-MSU is 0-3 SU 0-3 ATS (VALUE IS HERE)
Contrary to what many people say, "ride the winning streak until it ends, instead of trying to figure out when the losing streak will stop," I have had much more success riding the losing streaks at the right time. Vegas does not like undefeated ATS teams, especially ones that are ranked and have a big name (LSU). Things will balance out eventually.

Now you have to look at some stats and ask yourself if Miss St can hang in this one.

They do have an edge being at home in their SEC opener. Offensive stats are very close to even for these teams (both run and pass). Defensively, Miss St is much worse, but is Florida 14 points better? Florida has not laid this kind of number on the road in a while, and Miss St has not been given this many points at home in awhile. I like my chances with the 14 points (although I do not think that # is available currently).

Also remember that LSU is coming off a big win vs UGA. The line dropped from 14 for a reason...bait Joe Public with the 13/13.5's out there, but stay away from 14 to avoid a large "sharp money" attack.

 

[sphincter]

like kansas and troy......do not like washington...off lucky big number covers vs bad teams.....inflated the line ,imo.......taking an improved,scrappy stanford +14 vs usually bad home fave washington...washington will throw for some yardage....but,stanford`s defense has bent without breaking and they run the ball pretty well... trent edwards is a good young,tall combo qb(run and pass).....looking at the moneyline....but that might be a little to much to ask.......

picks are looking solid so far....keep up the solid work.....g.l. on all but the udub play

 

[getmoney+]

Nasdaq you make some great points but isn't this the same miss. st team that just got rolled by Houston. Houston put 42 up on them, and were up 28 at the half, I think LSU is just a lil bit better than Houston. LSU rolls by 20. Miss st might not get 10 points in this one.

 

[NASDAQ]

Sphincter-

Funny how you say that...I was second guessing 2 plays on my card last night after taking a deeper look. They were Washington and UCLA. Having some reserves about Boston College as well, but otherwise I love them all. We'll see how my two Pac-10 favorites do. Good luck to you.

 

[NASDAQ]

getmoney-

To be honest with you, the fact that Miss St got rolled by Houston 42-35 just makes me like the play more. I know, I know, you don't want to hear that, but that is how the contrarion gambler's mindset works. Not gonna win them all, but this is my point...when I cap I look for one thing, and that is VALUE (key word in gambling).

My perception of value may differ from yours, but to me, it's crystal clear that the value is on Miss St. in this game. LSU is the "easy" team to take, I don't like getting favors rom Vegas.

To me, you are being suckered if you take LSU. If I had any doubts in Miss St, I would just not bet this game, but the play is Miss St or pass. Just my $0.02, good luck with whatever you decide.

 

[getmoney+]

Thanks for the info NASDAQ your points are well taken. Do you go to UT. If so I also went there a couple of years ago, where do you live in Austin. Heck we might even know each other.

 

[getmoney+]

I was in the business school and majored in Finance. Have a good one.

 

[mt]

NAS

Thanks for the response. You hit at a question I posted in the Handicapping forum, which was really for you. I noticed that you go with teams who have lost ATS - this must be the contrarian approach you mention.

1) Where can I get more info on this approach? Have not found much to date.

2) It's obvious you look for "value" spreads - which is something I am trying to pick up. I have the numbers/stats/trends down, I have the matchups themselves down - but would like to add the ability to "recognize value" - from a market perspective. Any insight? I find this hard to do, because I feel like I either over read or under read the numbers - if that makes since.

Thanks as always.

 

[bhg]

I'm not going to answer for Nasdaq but in regards to playing teams with a bad ATS - well the value is there. Its more expensive to play a team that is 3-0 ATS because they're killing the books already and the spread indicates that. The line could be higher then normal because of all the play the great ATS team is getting. So there's your value in the dog.

 

[NASDAQ]

getmoney-
I am a recent UT grad.

mt-
I do not know of a place to find info on a contrarion approach to gambling, but I can offer this. I have been gambling and working on how to perfect my capping for 3 years now (not long). It just takes lots of experience to pick up on the intangibles of capping games. It really helps to analyze EVERY line each week so you are exposed to more situations, more teams, and a broader spectrum of results. I have tried many different approaches and there is not one that is any better than the rest. It's the combination of knowledge I have picked up from each one that has sharpened my capping skills. Have an open mind and test/try as many things as you can. I have tested some of the craziest statistics you could think of, and they all helped in some way.

BHG-
Took the words right out of my mouth. Thanks

 

[NASDAQ]

Can't help myself, adding 2 more:

Indiana +34

Buffalo +15

 

[NASDAQ]

Was going to wait on the totals till later in the week, but after looking over the numbers, not as many leans as I thought. Very good lines on the totals this week. Have 7 plays I like for the weekend:

Texas Tech/Mississippi Under 64

South Florida/Army Under 58

Temple/Louisville Under 51

Utah/Colorado State Under 51

Missouri/Kansas Under 62

Marshall/Troy State Over 45

UL-Lafayette/North Texas Under 41.5

 

[ATX]

I like UCLA, I dont like Kansas.

I think the KS recent scores are misleading. And the close Mizzou game last weekend makes them look a little more beatable.

I'm interested in your thoughts on that one.

 

[NASDAQ]

ATX-

For some reason the UCLA and Washington picks are scaring me each time I look at them, but that is a part of gambling I guess. I HATE second guessing my instinct when I cap games so I will let them stand.

About Kansas:

I think they are playing well offensively and Mangino will turn this program around (not a huge turn around, but .500 ball). My problem with Missouri is that they are having trouble against pass-first teams. Kansas QB is solid and if they play this one right, I think they can stick within the points. KU fans will be in attendance with the big rivalry and you know I don't mind playing home dogs in emotionally-driven conference games. Kansas was fortunate enough to be able to tune up for this one against a D2 school last week, and at the same time, see how Middle Tenn St, a 21.5 point DOG, hung in the game with Mizz. This is not a typical play for me as I don't like playing against teams that have lost public respect b/c of near upsets the week before, but I don't think linesmakers are going to give Kansas any love until they really prove themselves. That being said, this is the game that can turn heads for KU. If this line drops to 9.5, I will be even more confident about this pick.